6903 Salem Park Cir

Mechanicsburg, PA 17050

$212,000C-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,938/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$58
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $120/mo
• Annual: $1,436/yr
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $59,360

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $212k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (8.6% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#372 in PA, #3,259 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.7% in Mechanicsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.