2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,920 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Manufactured
· Active
· 52 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,472/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$572
Tax + insurance
−$86
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$519
Net cashflow
$1,296/mo
Annual
$15,553/yr
Cap rate
20.56%
Cash-on-cash
50.96%
DSCR
3.27
1% rule
2.27%
Cash to close
$30,520
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,192 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 3.0% in Banning — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,472/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 1146% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3NPDFF6G17SZBY
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29