8873 Canoe Dr

Lake Darby, OH 43119

$195,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1981 · SingleFamily · Pending · 161 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$489
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $38/mo
• Annual: $452/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($452/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#609 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hilliard City (suburban): math 57% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #246 of 656 in OH (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 8,139 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5,940 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.