2100 San Marcelo Blvd #256

Brownsville, TX 78520

$225,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,600 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,015/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $441/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($441/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $201k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Paredes El (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 778 students, 86% FRL); Vela Middle (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 638 students, 82% FRL); Hanna Early College H S (math 24% / reading 49%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,246 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools at 85% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,015/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1800% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.