3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,696 sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 294 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,273/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$293
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$267
Net cashflow
$267/mo
Annual
$3,205/yr
Cap rate
10.85%
Cash-on-cash
16.27%
DSCR
1.72
1% rule
1.50%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $267 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 294 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#523 in PA, #4,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
Williamsport Area SD (urban): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #349 of 539 in PA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 73 units permitted in Lycoming County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lycoming County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.6% in Williamsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 294 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3PRX8558JMTS82
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29