33228 Stables Drive Dr Unit B

Stapleton, AL 36527

$259,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 520 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,762/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$228
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-632/mo
• Annual: $-7,587/yr
• Cap rate: 3.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.43%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 520 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#227 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stapleton School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #142 of 627 statewide, top 25%, 193 students, 57% FRL); Bay Minette Middle School (math 11% / reading 40%, grade F, #158 of 257 statewide, top 63%, 435 students, 78% FRL); Baldwin County High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #140 of 305 statewide, top 46%, 1,039 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 520 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.