329 Elmira Trl

Hopatcong, NJ 07843-1110

$220,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 664 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$448
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,578/yr
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.81%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (23.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#249 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hopatcong Borough School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #322 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tulsa Trail Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #951 of 1,303 statewide, top 75%, 210 students, 35% FRL); Hopatcong Middle School (math 15% / reading 43%, grade F, #321 of 431 statewide, top 77%, 428 students, 26% FRL); Hopatcong High School (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #251 of 399 statewide, top 64%, 520 students, 25% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $220k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 0.4% in Hopatcong — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.