8459 Madrid St

Lakeland, FL 33810

$325,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,371/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,098/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $91,277

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $326k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (27.3% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $237k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: R. Clem Churchwell Elementary School (math 46% / reading 44%, grade D-, #1,271 of 2,144 statewide, top 60%, 708 students, 53% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.