4923 Esperanza Terrace Dr

Fairchilds, TX 77469

$239,990D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,954 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,372/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$117
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $258/mo
• Annual: $3,094/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $67,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (1.2% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $237k (1.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Fairchilds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.