29222 Carnaby Ln

Harvest, AL 35773

$399,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,319 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,865/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-910/mo
• Annual: $-10,924/yr
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.76%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-910 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (40.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (53.4% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (53.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#27 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Hill Elementary School (math 33% / reading 52%, grade F, #209 of 627 statewide, top 34%, 578 students, 48% FRL); Ardmore High School (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #107 of 305 statewide, top 36%, 993 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 326 active listings in the ZIP; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.