3889 State Highway 10

Caroga Lake, NY 13452

$170,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,402/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,203/yr
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (17.6% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $138k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Oppenheim-Ephratah-St. Johnsville CSD (rural): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #522 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Oppenheim-Ephratah-St Johnsville Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, 391 students, 54% FRL); Oppenheim-Ephratah-St Johnsville Junior/Senior High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 361 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.4% in Caroga Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.