10039 Sterling Ave

Dade City, FL 33525

$300,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$445
• HOA: −$243
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-113/mo
• Annual: $-1,350/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (9.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,720/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.