4938 Marcona Ln

Princeton, TX 75407

$182,589C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$958
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $302/mo
• Annual: $3,622/yr
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $51,125

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $183k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $183k).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $177k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1410 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen countertops — The countertops are visibly worn and need replacement.
• Major: Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and need replacement.
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — The bathroom fixtures are old and need replacement.
• Major: Flooring — The flooring is worn and may need replacement.
• Major: Interior walls — The walls show signs of wear and need repainting.
• Major: Roof — The roof appears damaged and needs replacement.