20 Commerce St

New Oxford, PA 17350

$195,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Built 1969 · Other · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,942/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$440
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $72/mo
• Annual: $859/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($859/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (0.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $194k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#944 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Conewago Valley SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #215 of 539 in PA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Oxford El Sch (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #444 of 1,518 statewide, top 32%, 563 students, 52% FRL); Conewago Valley Intrmd Sch (math 38% / reading 57%, grade C-, #156 of 512 statewide, top 32%, 850 students, 46% FRL); New Oxford Shs (math 80% / reading 10%, grade D-, #192 of 437 statewide, top 44%, 1,249 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 403 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $195k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.2% in New Oxford — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.