3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
504 sqft ·
Built 1946
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,998/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$522
Tax + insurance
−$136
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$921/mo
Annual
$11,047/yr
Cap rate
17.40%
Cash-on-cash
39.65%
DSCR
2.76
1% rule
2.01%
Cash to close
$27,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $921 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Ralph Bunche El (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 974 students, 88% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 35% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Midland ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 113 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3S5B4GDDZ40X46
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29