2958 Glenrock Dr

Macon-Bibb County, GA 31204

$199,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,253 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $115/mo
• Annual: $1,386/yr
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (14.2% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Rosa Taylor Elementary School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #996 of 1,228 statewide, top 83%, 583 students, 100% FRL); Howard Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #321 of 470 statewide, top 69%, 992 students, 100% FRL); Howard High School (math 2% / reading 5%, grade F, #413 of 424 statewide, top 99%, 1,076 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 257 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $61k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 5.5% in Macon-Bibb County — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $1,707/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 2674% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.