9818 Tanbark Ln

Edmundson, MO 63134

$159,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $974/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.18%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($974/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (12.2% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#353 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ritenour (suburban): math 13% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #304 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kratz Elem. (math 9% / reading 25%, grade F, #967 of 1,115 statewide, top 88%, 538 students, 99% FRL); Hoech Middle (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #339 of 391 statewide, top 87%, 299 students, 99% FRL); Ritenour Sr. High (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,873 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 66% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $160k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.