33 5th St

Aspinwall, PA 15215

$434,900D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,276 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 282 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,920/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax + insurance: −$733
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-707/mo
• Annual: $-8,484/yr
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $121,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-707 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $310k (28.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 282 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $292k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#39 in PA, #224 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-.
• Fox Chapel Area SD (suburban): math 73% / reading 85% proficiency, ranked #7 of 539 in PA (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $435k implies a 394% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 282 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.