1019 16th St NE

Washington, DC 20002

$649,999B

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,212/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$771
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,725
• Net cashflow: $2,307/mo
• Annual: $27,689/yr
• Cap rate: 10.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.21%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $577/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $650k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capitol Hill Montessori School At Logan (424 students, 0% FRL); Dunbar Hs (868 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 558 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; list at $650k implies a 634% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,212/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($120k/yr) (locally 3854% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.