526 Columbia Rd

Dupo, IL 62239

$33,500B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1908 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,158/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax + insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $705/mo
• Annual: $8,459/yr
• Cap rate: 31.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.18%
• DSCR: 5.01
• 1% rule: 3.46%
• Cash to close: $9,380

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $705 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $232 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#208 in IL, #3,916 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Dupo CUSD 196 (suburban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #543 of 620 in IL (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.