Clayton Adrenaline Plan

Toledo, OH 43615

$57,900D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 790 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,153/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,083/yr
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $40,569

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $58k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Springfield Local (suburban): math 47% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #404 of 656 in OH (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Springfield Middle School (math 44% / reading 53%, grade C-, #435 of 654 statewide, top 67%, 744 students, 81% FRL); Springfield High School (math 40% / reading 60%, grade D+, #384 of 781 statewide, top 49%, 922 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 6.9% in Toledo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.