137 Cheyenne Trl

Gumlog, GA 30557

$189,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2025 · Other · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,670/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$316
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $7/mo
• Annual: $80/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($80/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (12.1% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Big A Elementary School (436 students, 75% FRL); Stephens County Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 860 students, 75% FRL); Stephens County High School (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 1,142 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.7% in Gumlog — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.