159 Hemlock St

Horseheads, NY 14845

$91,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1951 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$477
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $293/mo
• Annual: $3,519/yr
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.81%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $25,480

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $91k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $91k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $629 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#494 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $75k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 5.1% in Horseheads — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.