4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,727 sqft ·
Built 1999
· Townhouse
· Active
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,186/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,337
Tax + insurance
−$338
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$459
Net cashflow
$52/mo
Annual
$622/yr
Cap rate
6.54%
Cash-on-cash
0.87%
DSCR
1.04
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$71,372
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $255k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($622/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (14.3% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $219k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#117 in FL, #1,790 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Kenwood Elementary School (math 68% / reading 64%, grade B+, #492 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 545 students, 58% FRL); Choctawhatchee Senior High School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D-, #220 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,677 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 36% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $48k; list at $255k implies a 431% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Wright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-3VGTK9F0BBP4B5
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29