2269 & 2275 Church St

Paris, TX 75460

$130,000B-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 339 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $307/mo
• Annual: $3,685/yr
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.12%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Chisum ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #146 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 275 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.