23 Mcphelin Ave

Ashland, NJ 08034

$505,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,167 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,648
• Tax + insurance: −$1,058
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$906
• Net cashflow: $-297/mo
• Annual: $-3,561/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $141,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $505k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $432k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($490k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $432k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#83 in NJ, #1,995 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Cherry Hill School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #181 of 472 in NJ (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: A. Russell Knight Elementary School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #209 of 1,303 statewide, top 19%, 452 students, 8% FRL); John A. Carusi Middle School (math 12% / reading 51%, grade F, #289 of 431 statewide, top 69%, 841 students, 29% FRL); Cherry Hill High School West (math 11% / reading 51%, grade F, #277 of 399 statewide, top 70%, 1,355 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 86 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Ashland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $4,316/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 344% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.