417 Arlington Rd

Hoyt Lakes, MN 55750

$99,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1957 · Other · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,269/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $323/mo
• Annual: $3,880/yr
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.00%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#270 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mesabi East School District (rural): math 27% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #240 of 301 in MN (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mesabi East Elementary (math 33% / reading 47%, grade F, #600 of 857 statewide, top 70%, 474 students, 51% FRL); Mesabi East Secondary (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #354 of 471 statewide, top 77%, 415 students, 43% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $99k implies a 435% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.