7417 Miley St

Houston, TX 77028

$149,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 214 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,810/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$810
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $-162/mo
• Annual: $-1,944/yr
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.61%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (19.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,810/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?