41 Willow St

Adams, MA 01220

$165,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,824/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $308/mo
• Annual: $3,701/yr
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.01%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#131 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Adams-Cheshire (rural): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #285 of 302 in MA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hoosac Valley Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #577 of 938 statewide, top 65%, 374 students, 0% FRL); Hoosac Valley Middle School (math 8% / reading 28%, grade F, #264 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 288 students, 0% FRL); Hoosac Valley High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #270 of 343 statewide, top 80%, 324 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Berkshire County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berkshire County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.7% in Adams — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.