1531 N 9th St

Springfield, IL 62702-2720

$95,000B+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,793 sqft · Built 1922 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,284/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $352/mo
• Annual: $4,225/yr
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.88%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.35%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#122 in IL, #2,138 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcclernand Elem School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,741 of 2,056 statewide, top 93%, 191 students, 0% FRL); Washington Middle School (math 3% / reading 6%, grade F, #650 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 531 students, 0% FRL); Lanphier High School (math 10% / reading 16%, grade F, #501 of 693 statewide, top 73%, 1,058 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 64% district-wide (64 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Springfield SD 186 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.9% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.