409 N Oak Ave

Endicott, NY 13760

$165,000C

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1938 · SingleFamily · Active · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,817/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $202/mo
• Annual: $2,426/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#438 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Union-Endicott Central School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #387 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ann G Mcguinness Elementar School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 317 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.5% in Endicott — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.