5019 Commonwealth Dr

Siesta Key, FL 34242

$600,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 518 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,972/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$1,229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,044
• Net cashflow: $-447/mo
• Annual: $-5,369/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $521k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $497k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 518 days — a 12% lower offer ($528k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $497k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#512 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $275k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $4,972/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($116k/yr) (locally 147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 518 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.