RC Carson Plan

Bixby, OK 74008

$257,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,559 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 413 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,455
• Tax + insurance: −$463
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-152/mo
• Annual: $-1,823/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $77,701

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (13.0% below list).
• It's been on market 413 days — a 12% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bixby (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #15 of 270 in OK (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 789 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bixby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 413 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.