247 W Highway 12 #29

Valley Springs, CA 95254

$55,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $544/mo
• Annual: $6,532/yr
• Cap rate: 18.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.41%
• DSCR: 2.89
• 1% rule: 2.13%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $-368 appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#747 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Springs Elementary (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 408 students, 46% FRL); Toyon Middle (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #400 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 531 students, 46% FRL); Calaveras High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 746 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.