9155 Aux Sable Ct

Channahon, IL 60450

$139,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Active · 109 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,041/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $560/mo
• Annual: $6,723/yr
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.27%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $560 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#143 in IL, #2,614 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Minooka Chsd 111 (suburban): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #187 of 620 in IL (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aux Sable (math 30% / reading 21%, grade F, #829 of 2,056 statewide, top 41%, 627 students, 0% FRL); Minooka Jr High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #277 of 665 statewide, top 42%, 1,058 students, 0% FRL); Minooka Community High School (math 28% / reading 36%, grade F, #157 of 693 statewide, top 25%, 2,930 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 84 units permitted in Grundy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grundy County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.3% in Channahon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.