14532 Sir Peyton Dr

Enon, VA 23836

$278,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,222 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-67/mo
• Annual: $-807/yr
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $77,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-807/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($270k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#293 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Enon Elementary (math 53% / reading 67%, grade B-, #533 of 1,108 statewide, top 48%, 781 students, 81% FRL); Elizabeth Davis Middle (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 1,337 students, 44% FRL); Thomas Dale High (math 41% / reading 82%, grade B-, #240 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 2,556 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 72 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $278k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 40% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Enon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.