407 Swartekill Rd

Rifton, NY 12528

$135,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Pending · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,750/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $460/mo
• Annual: $5,517/yr
• Cap rate: 10.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.59%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,170 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• New Paltz Central School District (suburban): math 67% / reading 88% proficiency, ranked #70 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Duzine School (317 students, 27% FRL); New Paltz Middle School (math 24% / reading 74%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 421 students, 28% FRL); New Paltz Senior High School (math 97% / reading 100%, grade A+, #10 of 1,100 statewide, top 1%, 668 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $135k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.