5019 Lower Elm St

South Fulton, GA 30349

$160,000A-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 2004 · Townhouse · Pending · 42 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$321
• HOA: −$74
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $419/mo
• Annual: $5,025/yr
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.22%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wolf Creek Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 797 students, 56% FRL); Renaissance Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #301 of 470 statewide, top 66%, 1,166 students, 71% FRL); Langston Hughes High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,964 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 41% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 651 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 10 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 4.6% in South Fulton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.