4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,603 sqft ·
Built 2023
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 95 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,538/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,201
Tax + insurance
−$550
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$533
Net cashflow
$255/mo
Annual
$3,058/yr
Cap rate
7.63%
Cash-on-cash
4.77%
DSCR
1.21
1% rule
1.11%
Cash to close
$64,120
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $208k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.4% in Beasley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-408P119QW1RTZA
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29