530 Nirk Ave Unit G

Kirkwood, MO 63122

$169,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,725/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$395
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,483/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (12.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#27 in MO, #2,478 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Kirkwood R-VII (suburban): math 57% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 324 in MO (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W. W. Keysor Elem. (math 56% / reading 66%, grade B, #114 of 1,115 statewide, top 10%, 618 students, 5% FRL); North Kirkwood Middle (math 55% / reading 68%, grade B+, #16 of 391 statewide, top 4%, 653 students, 9% FRL); Kirkwood Sr. High (math 72% / reading 79%, grade A-, #3 of 521 statewide, top 0%, 1,775 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $170k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.4% in Kirkwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?