3800 W Anderson St

Thatcher, AZ 85552

$199,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,625 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,078/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.93%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#94 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Thatcher Unified District (4219) (town): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #57 of 249 in AZ (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thatcher Elementary School (math 52% / reading 46%, grade D, #289 of 1,109 statewide, top 27%, 541 students, 33% FRL); Thatcher Middle School (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 290 students, 28% FRL); Thatcher High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #72 of 381 statewide, top 20%, 558 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Graham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Graham County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.