1138 Walkers Chapel Rd

Fairfield, TN 42120

$49,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 428 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,284/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $696/mo
• Annual: $8,355/yr
• Cap rate: 23.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.80%
• DSCR: 3.66
• 1% rule: 2.57%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $696 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $718 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#426 in TN) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allen County (rural): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #85 of 165 in KY (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 units permitted in Allen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allen County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $38k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.