2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
793 sqft ·
Built 1906
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,035/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,452
Tax + insurance
−$1,415
HOA
−$658
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,057
Net cashflow
$-2,548/mo
Annual
$-30,570/yr
Cap rate
2.69%
Cash-on-cash
-12.86%
DSCR
0.43
1% rule
0.59%
Cash to close
$237,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $849k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $480k (43.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $504k (40.7% below list).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $480k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $87k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $81k appreciation (9.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$139k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-40PMT8B5QA8TZ1
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29