145 St Regis

West Livingston, TX 77351

$39,900B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 630 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $861/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $404/mo
• Annual: $4,849/yr
• Cap rate: 18.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.41%
• DSCR: 2.93
• 1% rule: 2.16%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($861 rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1724 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.3% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: roof — Age and potential leaks
• Major: flooring — Worn and possibly substandard
• Major: interior walls/paint — Old and possibly peeling
• Major: windows — Age and potential drafts
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — Age and potential inefficiency