4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,289 sqft ·
Built 1938
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 33 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,893/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,311
Tax + insurance
−$376
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$397
Net cashflow
$-191/mo
Annual
$-2,291/yr
Cap rate
5.38%
Cash-on-cash
-3.27%
DSCR
0.85
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$69,972
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (13.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (24.3% below list).
It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $189k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Riverside Central Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #771 of 857 statewide, top 91%, 417 students, 79% FRL); Mayo Senior High (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #104 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 31% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 149 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
8 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29