151 SE 1st St #3202

Miami, FL 33131

$492,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · Built 2016 · Condo · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,580
• Tax + insurance: −$786
• HOA: −$637
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,005
• Net cashflow: $-223/mo
• Annual: $-2,677/yr
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.94%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $137,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $492k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-223 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $479k (2.7% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $453k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Frederick R. Douglass Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 221 students, 76% FRL); Jose De Diego Middle School (math 20% / reading 24%, grade F, #549 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 868 students, 68% FRL); Booker T. Washington Senior High (math 12% / reading 19%, grade F, #604 of 667 statewide, top 91%, 1,014 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 68% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-31 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1019 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $391k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 4→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.