2851 NE 183 Unit 2203-05

Aventura, FL 33160

$360,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 1974 · Condo · Pending · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$1,027
• HOA: −$1,098
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-753/yr
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.33%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-753/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $351k (2.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $360k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $328k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: health & safety A+, amenities A, commute A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Seminole Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 522 students, 64% FRL); West Miami Middle School (math 23% / reading 41%, grade F, #448 of 571 statewide, top 79%, 655 students, 67% FRL); South Miami Senior High School (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 1,507 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1870 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.6% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,000/mo this rent would consume 89% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.