4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,852 sqft ·
Built 1969
· SingleFamily
· Coming Soon
· 9 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,698/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,809
Tax + insurance
−$323
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$566
Net cashflow
$-1/mo
Annual
$-11/yr
Cap rate
6.29%
Cash-on-cash
-0.01%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$96,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (0.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (21.8% below list).
Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $270k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Newburgh Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 32% FRL); Castle North Middle School (math 57% / reading 59%, grade B, #18 of 330 statewide, top 5%, 770 students, 22% FRL); Castle High School (math 56% / reading 80%, grade B, #22 of 369 statewide, top 6%, 1,961 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 395 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Newburgh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-41TXRY4KJ6FB4Z
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29