2509 Karagan Dr

Mobile, AL 36606

$147,500D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,118 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,196/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $47/mo
• Annual: $568/yr
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $41,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($568/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maryvale Elementary School (math 5% / reading 25%, grade F, #505 of 627 statewide, top 81%, 494 students, 92% FRL); Pillans Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #233 of 257 statewide, top 91%, 537 students, 96% FRL); Lillie B Williamson High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #273 of 305 statewide, top 89%, 956 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 67% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 10% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Mobile County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.