502 Barton St

Alton, MO 65606

$119,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 2010 · Other · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,049/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $122/mo
• Annual: $1,466/yr
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, crime F, amenities F.
• Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Alton Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #813 of 1,115 statewide, top 75%, 283 students, 71% FRL); Alton High (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #420 of 521 statewide, top 82%, 336 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.